Is Brock Purdy Being Disrespected by Oddsmakers and Gamblers?
Last year, the story of Brock Purdy captivated the NFL world. Purdy started last season as the third-string option, behind starter Trey Lance and veteran backup Jimmy Garoppolo. Lance went down with a season-ending ankle injury, prompting the return of Garoppolo.
Weeks later, Garoppolo broke his foot, which led to Purdy's Cinderella story of going from the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to starting quarterback for the Super Bowl-caliber 49ers. Purdy led the Niners all the way to the NFC Championship Game, but an elbow injury that threatened to derail his 2023 season stopped the team dead in its tracks.
Thankfully, Purdy is not only healthy, but he was dominate enough in practice to make the 49ers brass feel comfortable about trading Trey Lance, the third pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, to the Dallas Cowboys while anointing him as the starting QB. In the short order, it seems like that move is paying off for San Francisco, who is one of the few NFL teams undefeated at 3-0 over the first three weeks.
However, when browsing the gambling odds for NFL MVP this morning, I noticed something that kind of surprised me. Brock Purdy currently does not have the top five best odds to win the MVP award.
Per Vegas Insider, an aggregate website that looks at all major sports gambling apps, including FanDuel and DraftKings, Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is currently the betting favorite to win the coveted MVP trophy. It's not hard to see why. He's been the center of a loaded Miami offense that just put up the most points in an NFL game since 1966.
Following Tua is reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes, the Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts, the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen, and the Los Angeles Chargers' Justin Herbert, all some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
While it's fair to say al of those men deserve their place atop the MVP betting leaderboard, it does beg the question: what do the bettors not like about Brock Purdy? Could it be that we've seen several quarterbacks succeed in Kyle Shanahan's offense? Could it be that the 49ers are so loaded on offense that gamblers believe Purdy just has to be capable and the team can win?
These are the questions that linger. Purdy currently has recorded 736 yards and four touchdown passes with no interceptions through three weeks of the 2023 NFL season.
Right now, Purdy has the seventh best odds to win MVP, with numbers ranging from +1800 - +2000 as of this writing. With that in mind, if you bet $1 on Purdy winning MVP at this moment, you'd win $21 (with +2000 odds).
Amidst an offseason of elbow rehab, Brock Purdy even got a new rule unofficially named after him. This came after the aforementioned NFC Championship Game saw him exit with injury only for his backup, Josh Johnson, to get injured later in the game. Purdy was forced back into action, but due to a serious elbow injury, was unable to throw the ball more than 10 yards.
Right now, the 49ers are on a tear and face the rebuilding/retooling Arizona Cardinals in San Francisco on Sunday, October 1st. See more NFL MVP odds on Vegas Insider.
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Gallery Credit: Johnny Marks